Leland Teschler's Editorial: Good News/Bad News: A Labor Shortage, but Not for Engineers

Appears in Print As: Good News/Bad News: A Labor Shortage, but Not for Engineers

July 21, 2009

With the unemployment rate at a 26-year-high point, it may seem odd to be talking about a looming labor shortage. But that is what some demographers are predicting once the recession is behind us. They reason that the period directly following the Baby-Boomer generation was a time of a “baby bust.” As economies pick up, there won't be enough younger people to replace retiring Boomers, particularly in occupations that require knowledge and experience.

That may be good for individuals who want to work into what have traditionally been retirement years. With the skills of older folks in ever-shorter supply, they are less likely to be pushed out to pasture before they are ready.

But older engineers shouldn't begin celebrating just yet. It looks as though the occupations most in demand will have little to do with technical professions. So predicts the U.S. Dept. of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics in its projections for employment out to 2016. It figures employment growth will continue to concentrate in service industries. That’s great for loan counselors, social-service assistants, health-care aids, and gaming managers. All of these professions are expected to grow 25% or more.

But most engineers will be left out. The only engineering jobs expected to grow rapidly over the next decade are in software. The BLS estimates that employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. And this prediction might underestimate the situation because it came before last fall’s economic meltdown. The only point of solace for those employed in actually making "stuff" is that this decline is half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost from 1996 to 2006. Meanwhile, jobs in goods-producing industries are expected to drop from 14.9 to 13.1% of total employment.

That isn't the end of the bad news. Four of the 10 industries with the largest expected wage and salary declines are in the manufacturing sector. They include motor-vehicle parts, wired telecommunications, and, interestingly, computer and peripheral equipment.

Consequently, the outlook for mechanical and electrical engineers isn't particularly inspiring. The BLS sees the number of mechanical-engineering positions rising only 4% in the next decade. For EEs, the figure is 5%. But MEs and EEs will have to put up with more managers. BLS says engineering-management positions will climb slightly more, up 7.3%.

Looking even further out, the picture doesn't get rosier. It is an interesting exercise to take the number of U.S. plant closings over the past five years and extrapolate the trend. When we applied a simple linear regression to these figures of declining facilities, we found that the line crossed zero in the year 2081. So in a mere 72 years, if present trends continue, your children and grandchildren will read about the last U.S. plant closing on a descendant of the Kindle.

For engineers interested in switching to a more growth-oriented profession, here's one, courtesy of the BLS: car-lot attendant. Despite the Green movement and its masstransit urgings, the BLS sees the ranks of car-lot attendants growing at a 13% clip, a rate exceeding that of most engineering disciplines.

— Leland Teschler, Editor

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Comments

I think engineering is still

On August 8th, 2009 Anonymous (not verified) says:

I think engineering is still a viable career. Unfortunatly the recruiters "job pool" is being drained and CEO's feel as if engineers are more of a commodity. It's sad that one company in Fort Wayne, IN only has three positions open for engineering and if you do a job search, there are six different contract companies trying to fill those three positions. It appears like they are on a highering spree..... Also, positions are advertised to build resume' pools. There are positions that I have learned to be filled yet the recruiters still advertise for months afterwords. I had one offer that was mid 80's, went through three telephone interviews, was offered the position, but when the contract was ready to be signed, the offer was dropped down to mid 40's! This was a three month ongoing process to bring me in. And then the position opens up every few weeks, due to the previous engineer moving on to better pastures, or being washed out. Any employer who understands the true understanding of a quality experiance engineer will see that this lowball approch will only make costs increase in the long run. Just my experiance.

ME's to increase by 4% EE's

On July 31st, 2009 Anonymous (not verified) says:

ME's to increase by 4%
EE's to increase by 5%
Engineering "Management" to increase by 7.3%

MBA's will continue to to destroy wealth at a rate politicians could only dream of........

Terminated

On July 30th, 2009 Peter Murricane (not verified) says:

After three perfect years of employment, I was told to take my things and go home leaving my gauges and tools to be stolen. A background check disclosed I was dismissed. We older engineers/techs are discarded as TRASH.

Release of Skilled Engineers

On July 25th, 2009 Craig Tallar (not verified) says:

Mr. Leland Teschler,

Upon reading your editorial in the July edition of Machine Design, I had to respond. You state – “With the skills of older folks in ever-shorter supply, they are less likely to be pushed out to pasture before they are ready.” Well in the Central North of USA, we are being “pushed out,” and not be choice! You forget that us “older folks” are costly to the Corporate CEOs. We have the higher salary, longer vacation days, and for higher insurance costs. Therefore, release us; retain the “youth” without the work knowledge of their education, and expect the same results!

Most Baby-Boomers are not ready to leave their “work,” for most of us, we were able to obtain the work we sought with advanced education, better health life style, and balanced work with life of our children and parents to care for. Now, we are just too costly!

Manufacturing is declining in the USA, for the corporations have sent the work to Japan, then China, now India and next will be Africa; only for the cheap labor costs. However, the design and education is still in the USA for technical issues. I believe manufacturing will return to the USA, for transportation cost will increase, and now introduce new machine technology that most abandoned for “cheap labor” in the past. Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineers will be needed; and I believe we will have many who truly inspired to be them then for obtain the degree for the higher salary because of demand.

Just my viewpoint, for many of the engineers I know released, do not plan to return to there former positions because of the leadership who “dismiss” them as a person that anyone can perform today who can use a computer and program! Just like Tool and Die Makers; they with the skills, will move on to other fields.

Release of Skilled Engineers

On July 30th, 2009 Peter Murricane (not verified) says:

I agree with Craig Tallar.I love working in railroad kicked out for cheap incompetent labor and now I have to beg and wait for a job in radio communications. My unemployment benefits are running out .

Engineering jobs

On July 24th, 2009 Pat Gallagher (not verified) says:

Extrapolation is always scary and usually wrong when it tries to predict a technical future. Innovation is, of course, the wildcard. If we extrapolate the need for technical people to support a new energy future, we get a lot more excitement than work as parking lot attendants and gaming managers. I'm betting there will be record need for MEs and EEs to keep our world functioning.

year 2081

On July 24th, 2009 gregben (not verified) says:

I think the standard of living of the rest of the world will
increase enough over the next decades that the labor cost
advantage held by what are now third-world countries will
disappear and it will make sense to manufacture domestically.
Automation will also play an important equalization role. Once
everyone is using robots for nearly everthing, China et al will
not be at such an advantage.

Labor Shortage

On July 23rd, 2009 Anonymous (not verified) says:

I have news for you, we do not have to wait for the recesson to end. There is a shortage today for Americans who doesn't mind working. The country has shortage now for craftsman and good design engineers, maintaince personnel, welders, ironworkers and electricians.

Engineering, not a career, jost job hopping.

On July 23rd, 2009 Mike C. (not verified) says:

I've been both a Manufacturing Engineer and Tool Designer for a long time. My first job lasted about 12 yrs. Since then the longest one has been 3-1/2 yrs. Two jobs lasted that long. Every job has ended with a layoff. The reason I say its not a career anymore is because all it is, is job hopping from place to place. Recruiters want you to work contract jobs. That's for people who like to live in motel rooms. As long as you can get everything you own in you car then you can do contract work. I mean they ask me if I want to live 1000 miles or more away from home so I can pay a mortgage on a house with all my stuff in it and don;t get to live in it while paying a motel bill that cost more than my mortgage. It isn't that I don't like the work I've done or the employers I've worked for, its just that jobs never last. I would say the average length of a job is about 2-12 yrs. Engineers are disposable. Sorry, I just had to rant. I'll bet there are other people who feel the same way. And finding a new job is tough. I have to tell people that I'm a piece from a puzzle trying to find the puzzle I fit into. I tell them its hard enough to get a job doing what I know, how am I supposed to get a job doing what I don't know? Impossible. Sometimes its just not have the right CAD background. I know Catia v4 and v5. But if the job requirements is Pro E or AutoCAD Inventor, forget it. I have no choice where I will live. I've been pretty lucky in that area and most of the places were pretty good. Also many jobs I apply to I know I'm a very good fit for and never hear from. I have applied to a number of jobs I know I can do. And whet really gets me is that I've seen these jobs posted for six months already and I wonder why they haven't filled them yet with all the available candidates out there.