But perhaps
more interesting than some of the “hot” technologies we review is what you
won’t find here: any discussion of ethanol.
January’s North American International Auto Show could well have conveyed
the idea that ethanol-based fuel would have been a hot topic this year.
Amongst much hoopla, carmakers introduced vehicle after vehicle that could
run on E85. Even Ferrari showed off an E85-mobile.
Veteran automotive analysts were unimpressed by this onslaught of E85
exuberance. They knew the real reason Detroit was so keen on ethanol:
By producing flex-fuel vehicles, automakers can artificially boost the fuelefficiency
numbers they must meet under Corporate Average Fuel Economy
standards. That’s because for CAFE, the federal government counts only the
amount of gasoline a vehicle consumes getting from point A to B and ignores
any ethanol it burns on the trip. A flex-fuel SUV, for example, might get city
mileage of about 14 mpg on pure gasoline. But for purposes of CAFE, it is
assumed to be running on E85. So on paper the SUV gets about 29 mpg of
gasoline in the city.
Of course, most such behemoths will rarely pull up to an E85 pump. So the
29-mpg rating is more myth than reality.
And odds are Las Vegas will become a city of teetotalers before today’s ethanol
processes will replace a significant amount of petroleum-based fuels. The
basic problem is a lack of heat energy in the feedstock. Crude oil contains about
18,400 Btu/lb; coal, 10,400 Btu/lb. But corn comes in at 7,000 Btu/lb. Switchgrass,
billed as the next great hope for ethanol feedstock, has only 6,400 Btu/lb.
The low heat energy of switchgrass means no matter how efficient the
refining process, mind-boggling amounts of the stuff are necessary to produce
meaningful quantities of ethanol. To see this in real terms, consider an
informal exercise cited by energy journalist Robert Bryce. Based on U.S. DOE
estimates, a plant able to produce 80 million gallons of ethanol annually would
need to take in 1 million tons of corn stubble. That much stubble would take
up 67,000 semitrailers. Put another way, that is 187 semitruckloads a day. The
plant’s annual output of ethanol would be the equivalent of 53 million gallons
of gasoline, or just 0.04% of the U.S. annual gasoline consumption.
But what about biodiesel refined from algae? It’s not clear algae-based biofuel
is economically practical. As with switchgrass, you need a lot of pond scum
to get much fuel. Researchers at the University of New Hampshire estimate
it would take between 9.5 and 28.5 million acres of land, depending on your
assumptions, to produce enough algae for U.S. transportation fuel needs. Raising
algae in bioreactors is another option, but the cost for meaningful outputs
quickly gets into the eyes-glaze-over range.
The best that can be said is that the jury is still out on whether you’ll see
algae biofuels in a future “hot” issue.
But enough about that. Readers of our print and digital editions will probably
notice Machine Design has a new look. We’ve updated our graphics and
introduced a few new features aimed at forging a closer link between the print
magazine and machinedesign.com. It’s all in the interest of better serving our
readers.
Leland Teschler, Editor