To some, mass
transit seems like a good way to
conserve energy and fossil fuels.
A few writers have argued that
properly engineered mass-transit
lines would be more energy efficient
than even hybrid vehicles.
There have been numerous
studies about the realities of mass
transit. With gasoline on its way
toward $5 per gallon, perhaps it is
time to review some of them.
The bad news is that installing
new mass-transit lines doesn’t attract
many riders. According to a
University of California (Irvine)
study, no U.S. region has been
able to coax more than about 1%
of commuters to switch from car
travel to rail, for example. The
same dynamics that make many
rail lines expensive boondoggles
would tend to work against any
people-moving scheme. This becomes
clear when you analyze the
few parts of the country in which
rail transit does indeed make economic
sense.
In Manhattan, for example,
most people take a train or bus to
work. The reason has nothing to
do with well-engineered rail lines
but everything to do with population
and job density. Manhattan
is over 20 times more densely
populated than most urban areas.
Even more important, there are
over 2.5 million jobs to be found
within the few square miles of the
island. Small wonder, then, that
New York City is the only U.S.
metro area where bus or rail carries
more than 15% of commuters
to work.
Contrast New York City with
the situation in typical urban areas.
No more than 40% of jobs reside
downtown or in suburban centers,
according to a recent study
by economist William T. Bogart.
That means any transit system focused on gett
ing people
into a city will
serve well under
half the
commuters in
the surrounding
area.
For similar
reasons, most people won’t regularly
use mass transit for shopping.
Economists point out that
consumers keep costs low by going
to wherever they get the best
deal, not just to stores near transit
lines. In fact buyers tied to mass
transit, such as the poor, are stuck
patronizing only merchants close
to transit stops and often end up
paying higher prices.
It’s not like municipalities save
money by installing rail lines instead
of more roads. A mile of
light-rail transit line typically
costs more to build than a mile of
four-lane freeway. Heavy rail like
San Francisco’s BART or Washington,
D.C.’s Metro costs even
more.
There have been a few recent
press reports of people moving
near mass-transit stations to get
relief from gas prices. But at least in
the stories I’ve seen, these new city
dwellers are either golden-agers
tired of mowing lawns, or childless
20-somethings. Most consumer
surveys continue to show the majority
of people prefer to live in a
house with a yard. So it is probably
unrealistic to expect a mass migration
downtown.
But here’s a counterintuitive
way to save energy and go easier
on the environment: Build more
freeways. The Texas Transportation
Institute calculates that traffic
congestion forces individual
drivers to waste 2.9 billion gallons
of fuel annually and add 28
billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Those figures would be
even higher if the costs to businesses
were factored in.
Leland Teschler, Editor